Main Article Content
The climate change research community is working on a toolbox for building new scenarios to investigate and assess the many unknowns that come with future climate change and development paths. The toolkit includes greenhouse gas emission pathways over the next century, as well as the magnitude and pattern of climate change associated with them; descriptions of a variety of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and adaptive capacity. To build a scenario, these elements are integrated in a matrix architecture. Along axes representing growing socioeconomic and environmental obstacles to adaptation and mitigation, five reference socioeconomic development trajectories have been described. This article expands on these global routes to discuss their potential repercussions for public health and health care, as well as the additional components that might be included to make the new scenarios more relevant to a broader variety of policy-relevant problems than before.
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